Onshore wind – Ambition is back but can the UK deliver at scale?

This article was first published in The Business.

Onshore wind is a central pillar of the UK’s clean power strategy. The Clean Power 2030 pathway assumes 27–29GW of onshore wind by 2030, rising to 35–37GW by 2035. That trajectory is not incidental: onshore wind remains one of the lowest-cost and fastest-to-deploy large-scale generation technologies available to decarbonise the UK power system.

Publication of The Onshore Wind Taskforce Strategy signals that ambition is back. At a time when the need for energy security has never been greater, the question is whether the Strategy provides a framework capable of turning ambition into deliverable projects.

The Strategy sets out > 40 actions across planning, grid, aviation and defence constraints, community engagement, finance and workforce. It sits alongside a broader policy reset: the moratorium on new onshore wind in England was lifted, the National Planning Policy Framework amended, and large English schemes returned to the NSIP regime.

For long-life infrastructure assets, regulatory clarity directly affects cost of capital, so the UK is in a stronger position now than at any time in the past decade.

Yet the market is not uniform across the UK. Scotland has operated under a supportive planning framework for several years and dominates the pipeline. England is rebuilding after nearly a decade of constraint. While barriers have eased, rebuilding consented capacity and investor confidence will take time.

This divergence is evident in Allocation Round 7 (AR7) of the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme. Over 1.3GW of onshore wind secured contracts at a competitive clearing price of £51.85/MWh (2012 prices) with the majority located in Scotland. The auction demonstrates that while onshore wind remains cost-competitive, Scotland continues to host most of the projects, but if targets are to be met, England must convert reform into accelerated delivery at scale.

Repowering and life extension will be critical to the 2030 and 2035 trajectories. Many of the early onshore wind projects will reach end of life this decade. Replacing legacy turbines with modern multi‑megawatt machines could increase output within existing sites, leveraging existing grid connections and limiting additional land requirements.

Repowered projects are eligible for CfD support, and from AR7 onwards, onshore wind benefits from 20-year, CPI-indexed contracts. The longer tenor strengthens revenue certainty, supports longer-dated debt and lowers weighted average cost of capital for both new build and repowering.

However, repowering must be treated as strategic reinvestment and not greenfield development. Proportionate planning treatment and prioritised access under new grid connection regimes will determine whether this opportunity is fully realised.

As Matt Porter, Director of NextLife Generation observed: “Clean Power 2030 is only a good intention, unless it is accompanied by the regulatory reform needed to sustain and repower the UK onshore wind market.”

Yet, there are a couple of material threats to delivery of onshore wind: the first is Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) charging, NESO’s charging mechanism to recover costs from generators using the network to transport electricity. TNUOS is creating distortion based on geographical location. The best wind resource is in Scotland and northern England, both distant from the demand centres in the south – the result is “northerly” generators are exposed to some of the highest and most volatile TNUoS charges in Europe. For CfD-projects, that impacts net revenues. For merchant or PPA projects, that undermines bankability. In extreme cases, it completely offsets any advantage in harnessing superior wind resource and discourages development, which is totally counterproductive to generation ambitions. Left unaddressed, such volatility is increasing perceived risk and raising the cost of capital. A solution is urgently required.

The second issue, around grid connection delays, is well documented, with some projects receiving connection dates years later than originally anticipated. Connections reform, addressing grid queues and building the network to accommodate generation capacity is an urgent national priority.

The UK now has a more coherent policy framework than at any point in the past decade: planning reform, repowering eligibility, longer CfD contracts and greater market design clarity. Onshore wind remains cost-competitive and investable. However, delivery depends on execution. England must accelerate consenting, the pipeline must not be constrained by grid and charging distortions, and repowering must be mainstreamed as a core capacity lever.

Whether the UK becomes a “clean energy superpower” depends not on ambition alone, but on whether the structural barriers are addressed quickly enough to convert policy into turbines.

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